Donald Trump has become the new standard for the world, with
indeed few appreciable
This in itself is a massive power in a party, with new implications for turning the situation by 180°. This rhetoric will likely shift its way to the middle ground of US institutional politics, particularly on big issues such as US interference in the Middle East.
Keeping aside forceful endeavors to history of Trump in political office, statements such as the ‘Brexit-plus plus’ pave a path to adverse effects on globalization and trade incorporation, indicate an agenda that prioritize the economy first to address the red map of restive American voters who feel their leadership, especially in adverse times, has ignored their needs.
Given his urgent need to enhance a larger picture of policy agenda at international level, turning to South Asia and then Pakistan will likely not be his preferred Endeavor. If that even happens, three big changes will be expected.
Firstly, without considering what re-balancing means, the Trump administration will be more inclined towards India as their first strategic Endeavor in Asia, so joint with the Obama's regime is expected to be tilted, especially on the NSG, which will not endure any game-changing aspects. Indian markets and other colonies indulgence into this Republican power machine is highly expected and jointed as one of America’s most empowered and qualified ethnic communities. Trump’s enfolding of hyper-nationalist or jingoistic governments corresponding with his own continuously evolving Conservative will be adopted naturally by his administration than inclining towards Pakistan often defined as a ‘frenemy’. The drive struggled its best at reaching out to all Indians, including Hindu nationalist groups, which attempted Trump to speak a few lines of Hindi. No worries, but more of the same is expected.
Secondly, for any global power, there may be no way out from strategically located country like Pakistan, lying on such a long geopolitical fore front is never an appreciable strategy for a link shackled down by mistrust and uncertainty. While Afghan precarious situation and advances by Taliban will lead the Trump leadership into slowing down the advancements from Afghanistan, and hence Pakistan's strategists should consider another constant Endeavor in US policy: the need to manage the politics of military failure abroad. US political and military accomplishment, both carries a great honor and decor in spreading a credible message of liability to their people. This means military negligence and default abroad has to be explained to potent parliamentarians committees and the people through media. National security projects and defence pledges abroad ultimately have to put forth either plausible victories, or find a fall blocking successful outcomes. Also, there will be no difference in American’s political scenario of containing public damage.
As far as names given on star-billing for key posts are concerned, the Trump team, more than as compared to the Obama White House, will likely have no waver in disciplining Pakistan instead of their own associate for battlefield negligence in Afghanistan as made on their eye, nor will it see assistance as a prize for boosting better mutual collaboration. Afghanistan’s own negligence at political harmony, state conjoin and economic solution will likely build pressure between any new US administration and Pakistan, with invective to yield more across our western border. In case of such a tough-love state of play from US, it would be best for Pakistan to be clear about the limitations to its power in Afghan Taliban circles.
Thirdly, despite the positive feedback of some, it is likely that the split-level between the two countries will, in the middle tenure will increase instead of damping down. The best option will likely be covered in a ‘Pakistan-good enough’ strategy, where least cooperation is expected to be joined with containing or defensive insulation. This will mean defending the US homeland and Afghan red areas from ‘Pakistan-based threats’ such as terrorist attacks and the risks of nuclear proliferation.
Besides, While Trump may not openly object and fuss the bond between Pakistan and China as key allies; Pakistan ‘overall inclinations will need alertness to say the least. Unending screenplays like proportions can be averted, but not without urge and force pertaining foreign policy. Either way, Pakistan will need brisk focus, not just conceived goodwill, to conquer the complex new face of power in the world. Pakistan for the regional peace and stability and as a voice for moderation in the Muslim belt, the US will continue to extend limited economic and military assistance to Pakistan. Our policy objective should be to fortify our friendship with the US while reducing our dependence on it.
Things can, however, take an absurd turn in Pakistan-US relations if Washington under Trump comes to the conclusion that Pakistan is not cooperating whole-heartedly in countering terrorism, if we withhold our cooperation in encouraging national harmony and a political settlement in Afghanistan, or if we indulge in any activity which raises US concerns on issues of nuclear safety or proliferation. These developments may evoke a worse US response under Trump to the dismay of Pakistan.
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